Empirical assessment of the relationship between conventional and unconventional monetary policy instruments and macroeconomic indicators in Uzbekistan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33152/jmphss-10.3.2Keywords:
unconventional monetary policy, central bank total assets, policy rate, consumer price index, exchange rate, gross domestic productAbstract
This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy instruments in Uzbekistan with the aim of assessing their relative effectiveness. The empirical results indicate that the conventional interest rate channel exhibits relatively more stable and consistent effects across different model specifications compared to the unconventional balance sheet channel. The policy rate exerts statistically significant causal effects on GDP, inflation, and the exchange rate within both the VECM and Toda–Yamamoto frameworks. The findings further suggest that the effects of unconventional monetary policy materialize gradually, with considerable lags, and are most pronounced in long-run equilibrium relationships. Overall, the empirical evidence indicates that monetary policy transmission in Uzbekistan operates through a hybrid mechanism, wherein conventional interest rate instruments retain their primary role while unconventional balance sheet expansion policies serve as a complementary stabilization tool.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Dilshod Safaroliyevich Djumonov, Sayfillo Saidovich Nasriddinov, Shovkat Maxsumovich Ilmuratov, Nurlan Alimjanovich Kaldibayev
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